Dr. Ibrahim Negm, advisor to the Mufti of the Republic, gave a lecture on “forward-looking scenarios for the future of extremist groups in 2021,” which were broadcast internationally in Islamic centers in the European Union, and European broadcasts to Islamic centers, divergently through modern applications. Dr. Ibrahim Negm said Adviser to the Mufti of the Republic, the acceleration witnessed by daily events in this era, with the interconnectedness and complexity of relations and their intertwining, and the great openness to the world, and the transmission of influences in a few seconds from one country to another, required an attempt to understand and study these entanglements; So that decision makers can anticipate the events that may affect the reality and know the extent and extent of the impact, hence the importance of future studies. The advisor to the Mufti of the Republic stressed that the message of Islam is a universal divine message, as scholars, muftis and thinkers have a great role and a great responsibility in anticipating the future and understanding the rapid changes around them, whether at the local or global levels, even if the renewal of religious discourse is one of The priorities of the current stage, with the changes taking place in the Arab and international arena, the situation heralds the entry of a new stage of Islamic thought and discourse that will be global in nature, accommodating all peoples and nations. Especially with the availability of means of communication and communication, and the spread of Muslims in all countries of the earth.
The advisor to the Grand Mufti of the Republic added that this requires preparing for this new phase of what we can expect in the future, by seizing opportunities and avoiding risks. Foreseeing the future does not aim to predict the details of future events, neither for individuals nor for the human community. This is the field of astrology and fortune-telling that is forbidden by Sharia. However, future studies are a practical skill that aims to extrapolate general trends in human life, which affect a certain system in the paths of individuals and nations. The advisor to the Mufti of the Republic stressed that anticipating the future is one of the modern topics, and it makes the scholar and jurist with capacity and knowledge of various matters, and he has an important consideration in deriving and downloading rulings; Because it is based on the realization of the purposes, but it should be cautious in its assessment so that the matter does not end up in an illusory foresight, and a judgment is based on it in a wrong place, so it would be a mistake in deciding the provisions of Sharia or downloading them, and therefore it should not be considered in the foresight except what is achieved by knowing it in a way Certainty or conjecture. The advisor to the Mufti of the Republic explained that the nation has a need to anticipate the future in all areas of life, especially in the field of jurisprudence and its emerging issues and possible calamities, especially since Islamic Sharia is concerned with the interests and corruptions in the present and the future, and it has set many rules; Therefore, the contemporary Islamic mind should reconcile with the future and open up to it in anticipation, planning and action in order to free minds from fanaticism, and take from the bright past and the enlightened present with evidence in order to pay attention to the issues of the future.
Scenarios foreseeing the future of extremist groups 2021
The advisor to the Mufti of the Republic said, “The process of reading and foreseeing the future is still one of the most important processes that have accompanied man since the beginning of creation, through which he seeks to explore all alternatives in his future, and perhaps it is the best way to penetrate the clouds of the present raised by these terrorist organizations and groups to see What will her future look like in 2021?
And the advisor to the Mufti of the Republic stressed that putting the actions and ideas of these terrorist organizations on the table for analysis and refutation leads us to a set of results, which by reading it, we extract future scenarios for their operations on the ground, with impact and influence.
Scenarios for the future of the “Al-Qaeda” organization… refute the idea of the organization’s transformation from weakness to strength in the near term
And the advisor to the Mufti of the Republic added that Al-Qaeda has suffered for years in a state of noticeable decline, which can be dated from the beginning of the killing of its leader Osama bin Laden and the transfer of the helm of leadership to Al-Zawahiri. The absence of the elements of strength and charisma that bin Laden enjoyed from “Al-Zawahiri”, then the killing of a number of the organization’s leaders and ideologists, and its exposure to internal penetration and espionage, and the loss of its influence in favor of ISIS, and the many defections within its ranks. By carefully reading these events and the current situation of the organization and analyzing it, we can present three scenarios for the future of the organization in the coming year.. The first is what indicates the continued decline of the organization and its loss of areas of influence, followers and leaders, and that it will remain present on the scene, but in a manner characterized by a great deal of weakness. and fragility, and it will remain exhausted even if it appears cohesive at the present time, and it will have the upper hand and the upper hand over its affiliate organizations in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
The second is the scenario related to the organization’s ability to achieve internal reform, which seems unlikely under the leadership of “Al-Zawahiri” due to his failure to achieve it over the years. Therefore, the organization’s return to activity and the expansion of its kinetic operations is possible if the organization manages to find a successor to Al-Zawahiri who has thought and mentality. Bin Laden,” a matter that has become not excluded in light of what was reported about the death of “Al-Zawahiri” last November.
In sum, the idea of achieving progress in the organization’s operations is not present at the foreseeable level, and it will take about 3 to 4 years for the next leader to be able to confront the problems faced by the organization and restore its cohesion again.
The third: the scenario that carries an island change in the organization’s status on the ground with the complete and final end of its central leadership, and its division into independent and individual organizations, such as the independence and secession of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and the Mujahideen Youth Movement in Africa.
This scenario cannot be ruled out in the long run